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includes Jay Goldberg's in-depth team by team draft report cards

2013 NFL Draft: Round One Pick by Pick Analysis
Please note that this analysis is being done pick by pick not after-the-fact so at the time of this analysis, I have no knowledge of what a team did after their selection.

The categories for each selection will be one of the following four:

Agree - nothing more needs to be said, but I'll probably write something anyway.

Can't argue, but ... - the pick makes sense, there are no negative marks for the selection, however, I might have done something different and I'll explain what that was.

Disagree, here's why ... - I see some merit in the pick, but I definitely would have done something different and I'll explain what that was.

Mistake - most often this will be because I would have gone in a totally different direction and, in my opinion, the team will regret their selection in the long run. A mistake listing is not a negative mark on the player drafted. That player could have an excellent NFL career. It's just that I feel the NFL team will regret passing on another player, or not drafting a player at a different position.


1. KC, Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan Agree; I would have agreed if they selected Joeckel also.
2. JAC, Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M Can't argue, Joeckel was the right pick staying at this spot.  However, with Alan Ball and Mike Harris their current starters at corner, I would have explored trading down to get more picks and to target Milliner lower in round one.
3. MIA, Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon Can't argue, a pass rusher opposite Wake is a good add; but let's see if Miami gets Albert from Kansas City, or a right tackle in round two.  If not they could regret not drafting Lane Johnson here.
4. PHI, Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma Agree; I had this earlier than most in my mock; the athletic Johnson is the ideal tackle for Chip Kelly's offense.
5. DET, Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU Agree; he is ideal for the wide 9 defensive scheme run by Detroit.
6. CLE, Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU Can't argue, I might have gone Milliner to pair with Haden, but there will be a better cornerback available in round three (the Browns next selection) than outside linebacker/pass rusher.  Mingo is an upgrade over Sheard, who is really not an ideal fit as an outside linebacker in Cleveland's new 3-4 defense.
7. ARZ, Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina Agree; Arizona needs to upgrade its offensive line and Cooper will help immediately.
8. STL, Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia Agree; with Austin in the slot and Givens outside, the Rams now have speed to burn on offense.
9. NYJ, Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama Agree; when looking back at this draft in five years it wouldn't surprise me if Milliner is the best defensive player to come out of the draft.
10. TEN, Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama Agree; need meets value.  
11. SD, D. J. Fluker, OT, Alabama Can't argue, the Chargers badly need a tackle.  However, this is a bit high for Fluker.  San Diego was the loser with 5 offensive lineman being selected in the top 10 picks of the draft.
12. OAK, D. J. Hayden, CB, Houston Disagree, here's why; Hayden is a nice story and a good player; however Trufant will be the better NFL cornerback.  Over time, the Raiders will be happy with Hayden, but would have been ecstatic if they drafted Trufant. 
13. NYJ, Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri Mistake;  with Wilkerson and Coples at end, and Richardson too light to play the nose; this means he is either an undersized nose tackle, a part time player, or Coples moves to outside linebacker full time where he is not an ideal fit.  Personally, I would have gone outside linebacker later in the draft (Collins, T Williams, Lemoneir, Washington) and grabbed tight end Tyler Eifert here. <FYI - I wrote this before Mel Kiper said the same thing about the pick and Eifert>
14. CAR, Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah Can't argue, this could end up being one of the steals of the draft; but the vision of Cam Newton throwing to Justin Hunter, a 6'4" receiver who has a 40.5" vertical and runs a 4.4 forty is imbedded in my mind.
15. NO, Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas Can't argue, the Saints were awful against the pass last year and Vaccaro is the draft's best safety; however there is excellent depth at safety in this draft and the Saints' need an OLB pass rusher in their new 3-4 defense, so Jarvis Jones could have made sense as well.
16. BUF, E. J. Manuel, Florida State Agree; Manuel was the only quarterback who looked good at the Senior Bowl this post season.  I had a first round grade on him.  He was the #2 rated quarterback on my board (with a first round grade), and I have no quarrels with him being the first quarterback off the board.
17. PIT, Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia Agree, this is a typical Steelers' pick; going production over poor workout; in addition to playing outside, I could see Jones playing inside in the Steelers' defense as well.
18. SF, Eric Reid, S, LSU Agree, but I had rated higher than most; he was the #2 safety on my board.  I had Reid mocked to the 49ers with their original first round pick.
19. NYG, Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse Can't argue, I have a second round grade on Pugh, but on reflection, I may have graded him too low.  However, monster athlete, defensive end Margus Hunt would have been an interesting selection for the Giants, whose sack production declined last year.
20. CHI, Kyle Long, OT/OG, Oregon Can't argue, the Bears need help on their offensive line badly; however this was a bit high for Long. 
21. CIN, Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame Agree, Eifert is a better weapon than Gresham and the Bengals can now use a two tight end offense.  
22. ATL, Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington Agree; one of the best picks of the first round in terms of need, value, and the player's ability.
23. MIN, Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida Agree; Floyd is excellent value at this spot at a position of need for the Vikings.  This pick could prove to be a steal.
24. IND, Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State Mistake; Werner is too light to play defensive end in a 3-4 defense; and there are better fits as outside linebackers in a 3-4 defense.  Werner's best fit is as a 4-3 defensive end.  That said, he'll be productive with Indy, just not first-round productive.  I would have gone nose tackle with Brandon Williams or even the big kid John Jenkins, or Jamie Collins or Sio Moore at linebacker.
25. MIN, Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State Agree, I had Rhodes mocked to the Vikings.  With Cook having off the field issues and a history of injuries, a tall, fast corner like Rhodes (6'2" with a 40.5" vertical and a 4.41 forty) is ideal when facing big fast receivers like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in the NFC Central.
26. GB, Datone Jones, DE, UCLA Agree, Jones will be the rare 3-4 defensive end who will get sacks.  However, after cutting Woodson loose Elam would have been a good pick as well.
27. HOU, DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson Can't argue, Hopkins has great hands and is a very good receiver.  However, as usual with Houston, I had a couple of receivers rated a little higher than Hopkins.  But Houston was much closer to my receiver board than in the past (exclusion of Andre Johnson of course); so this is a win when thinking who they could have drafted.
28. DEN, Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina Can't argue, but I would have gone Damontre Moore.  The Broncos lost Dumervil and there will be better defensive tackles available in round two than pass rushing defensive ends.
29. MIN, Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee Can't argue, but they gave up a lot to go up and get him.  Hopefully there will be a good middle linebacker (the underrated Beauharnais comes to mind) available for them when they pick next in round four. 
30. STL, Alex Ogletree, ILB, Georgia Agree, I had Ogletree mocked to St. Louis with their pick (#22) from Washington that they traded to Atlanta.  So they dropped and still got the player I projected for them.  Good job.
31. DAL, Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin Disagree, here's why; I believe Frederick would have been available for Dallas with their second round pick (or as a fallback option Schwenke, my top rated center) and the Cowboys need an impact safety.  With teams such as Cincinnati and Carolina picking ahead of them in round two, and Baltimore who is up next, there is more of a chance of safeties going before Dallas next selection than centers.  So I would have taken my top the safety here (Elam, maybe Cyprien) and drafted my center in round two.
32. BAL, Matt Elam, S, Florida Agree, Elam is an excellent replacement for Pollard.  I would have also agreed if Baltimore went with a receiver like Justin Hunter.  However, Dallas (see above), here's a safety off the board, and one to a team with a history of drafting excellent defesnive players.


A football magazine in book form.


(use link above)

  • Schedule
  • Depth Chart
  • Season Outlook Write-Up with 2012 Team Offensive & Defensive Rankings
  • Write-Up on Nine Players for Fantasy Football; Each Classified as a Sleeper, Break-Out, Star, or Caution
  • List of Draft Picks (includes top undrafted college street free agents)
  • Workout Numbers for All Players on the Above List (includes the free agents)
  • Notations for Senior Bowl/East West Shrine Game Players That Popped
  • Draft Report Card Write-Up with Grade and Draft Value Index Score
  • College Stats and Write-Ups for Players Drafted or Signed on Jay’s Annual List of Players Who Will Have a Better NFL Career Than Many Selected Higher Than Them in the Draft
  • Team Draft Tendency Chart by Workout Drill for the 2012 and 2013 Drafts
Note - Throughout the team pages are bonus graphs and charts comparing teams’ draft workout strategies, teams’ draft value indices, and fantasy football production comparisons between 2011 and 2012

includes Jay Goldberg's in-depth team by team draft report cards