IN JUNE, 2013
PRO FOOTBALL DRAFT RECAP and FANTASY FOOTBALL and SEASON
Jay Goldberg's in-depth team by team draft report cards
2013 NFL Draft:
Round One Pick by Pick Analysis
Please note that this analysis
is being done pick by pick not after-the-fact so at the time of this
analysis, I have no knowledge of what a team did after their selection.
The categories for each selection will be
one of the following four:
- nothing more needs to be said, but I'll probably write something
Can't argue, but ... - the pick
makes sense, there are no negative marks for the selection, however, I might
have done something different and I'll explain what that was.
Disagree, here's why
... - I see some merit in the pick, but I definitely would have
done something different and I'll explain what that was.
- most often this will be because I would have gone in a totally
different direction and, in my opinion, the team will regret their
selection in the long run. A
mistake listing is not a negative mark on the player drafted.
That player could have an excellent NFL career. It's just that I feel
the NFL team will regret passing on another player, or not drafting a
player at a different position.
1. KC, Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
I would have agreed if they selected Joeckel also.
2. JAC, Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Joeckel was the right pick staying at this spot.
However, with Alan Ball and Mike Harris their current
starters at corner, I would have explored trading down to
get more picks and to target Milliner lower in round one.
3. MIA, Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
a pass rusher opposite Wake is a good add; but let's see
if Miami gets Albert from Kansas City, or a right tackle
in round two. If not they could regret not drafting
Lane Johnson here.
4. PHI, Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
I had this earlier than most in my mock; the athletic
Johnson is the ideal tackle for Chip Kelly's offense.
5. DET, Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU
he is ideal for the wide 9 defensive scheme run by
6. CLE, Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
argue, I might have gone Milliner to pair with Haden, but
there will be a better cornerback available in round three
(the Browns next selection) than outside linebacker/pass
rusher. Mingo is an upgrade over Sheard, who is
really not an ideal fit as an outside linebacker in
Cleveland's new 3-4 defense.
7. ARZ, Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
Arizona needs to upgrade its offensive line and Cooper
will help immediately.
8. STL, Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
with Austin in the slot and Givens outside, the Rams now
have speed to burn on offense.
9. NYJ, Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
when looking back at this draft in five years it wouldn't
surprise me if Milliner is the best defensive player to
come out of the draft.
10. TEN, Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
need meets value.
11. SD, D. J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
argue, the Chargers badly need a tackle. However,
this is a bit high for Fluker. San Diego was the
loser with 5 offensive lineman being selected in the top 10
picks of the draft.
12. OAK, D. J. Hayden, CB, Houston
||Disagree, here's why;
Hayden is a nice story and a good
player; however Trufant will be the better NFL
cornerback. Over time, the Raiders will be happy
with Hayden, but would have been ecstatic if they drafted
13. NYJ, Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
with Wilkerson and Coples at end, and Richardson too light
to play the nose; this means he is either an undersized
nose tackle, a part time
player, or Coples moves to outside linebacker full time
where he is not an ideal fit. Personally, I would
have gone outside linebacker later in the draft (Collins,
T Williams, Lemoneir, Washington) and
grabbed tight end Tyler Eifert here. <FYI - I wrote
this before Mel Kiper said the same thing about the pick
14. CAR, Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
argue, this could end up being one of the steals of the
draft; but the vision of Cam Newton throwing to Justin
Hunter, a 6'4" receiver who has a 40.5" vertical
and runs a 4.4 forty is imbedded in my mind.
15. NO, Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
argue, the Saints were awful against the pass last year
and Vaccaro is the draft's best safety; however there is
excellent depth at safety in this draft and the Saints'
need an OLB pass rusher in their new 3-4 defense, so
Jarvis Jones could have made sense as well.
16. BUF, E. J. Manuel, Florida State
Manuel was the only quarterback who looked good at the
Senior Bowl this post
season. I had a first round grade on him. He
was the #2 rated quarterback on my board (with a first
round grade), and I have no quarrels with him being the
first quarterback off the board.
17. PIT, Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
this is a typical Steelers' pick; going production over
poor workout; in addition to playing outside, I could see
Jones playing inside in the Steelers' defense as well.
18. SF, Eric Reid, S, LSU
but I had rated higher than most; he was the #2 safety on
my board. I had Reid mocked to the 49ers with their
original first round pick.
19. NYG, Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse
I have a second round grade on Pugh, but on reflection, I
may have graded him too low. However, monster
athlete, defensive end
Margus Hunt would have been an interesting selection for
the Giants, whose sack production declined last year.
20. CHI, Kyle Long, OT/OG, Oregon
argue, the Bears need help on their offensive line badly;
however this was a bit high for Long.
21. CIN, Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
||Agree, Eifert is a better weapon than Gresham and the
Bengals can now use a two tight end offense.
22. ATL, Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
one of the best picks of the first round in terms of need,
value, and the player's ability.
23. MIN, Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
Floyd is excellent value at this spot at a position of
need for the Vikings. This pick could prove to be a
24. IND, Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
is too light to play defensive end in a 3-4 defense; and
there are better fits as outside linebackers in a 3-4
defense. Werner's best fit is as a 4-3 defensive
end. That said, he'll be productive with Indy, just
not first-round productive. I would have gone nose
tackle with Brandon Williams or even the big kid John
Jenkins, or Jamie Collins or Sio Moore at linebacker.
25. MIN, Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
I had Rhodes mocked to the Vikings. With Cook having
off the field issues and a history of injuries, a tall,
fast corner like Rhodes (6'2" with a 40.5"
vertical and a 4.41 forty) is ideal when facing big fast
receivers like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in the
26. GB, Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
Jones will be the rare 3-4 defensive end who will get
sacks. However, after cutting Woodson loose Elam
would have been a good pick as well.
27. HOU, DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
argue, Hopkins has great hands and is a very good
receiver. However, as usual with Houston, I had a
couple of receivers rated a little higher than
Hopkins. But Houston was much closer to my receiver
board than in the past (exclusion of Andre Johnson of
course); so this is a win when thinking who they could
28. DEN, Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
argue, but I would have gone Damontre Moore. The
Broncos lost Dumervil and there will be better defensive
tackles available in round two than pass rushing defensive
29. MIN, Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
argue, but they gave up a lot to go up and get him.
Hopefully there will be a good middle linebacker (the
comes to mind) available
for them when they pick next in round four.
30. STL, Alex Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
I had Ogletree mocked to St. Louis with their pick (#22)
from Washington that they traded to Atlanta. So they
dropped and still got the player I projected for
them. Good job.
31. DAL, Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
why; I believe Frederick would have been available for
Dallas with their second round pick (or as a fallback
option Schwenke, my top rated center) and the Cowboys need
an impact safety. With teams such as Cincinnati and
Carolina picking ahead of them in round two, and Baltimore
who is up next, there is more of a chance of safeties
going before Dallas next selection than centers. So
I would have taken my top the safety here (Elam, maybe
Cyprien) and drafted my center in round two.
32. BAL, Matt Elam, S, Florida
Elam is an excellent replacement for Pollard. I
would have also agreed if Baltimore went with a receiver
like Justin Hunter. However, Dallas (see above),
here's a safety off the board, and one to a team with a
history of drafting excellent defesnive players.
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ALL TEAM SECTIONS INCLUDE:
Note - Throughout the team pages are
bonus graphs and charts comparing teams’ draft workout
strategies, teams’ draft value indices, and fantasy football
production comparisons between 2011 and 2012
- Depth Chart
- Season Outlook Write-Up with 2012
Team Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- Write-Up on Nine Players for
Fantasy Football; Each Classified as a Sleeper, Break-Out,
Star, or Caution
- List of Draft Picks (includes top
undrafted college street free agents)
- Workout Numbers for All Players
on the Above List (includes the free agents)
- Notations for Senior Bowl/East
West Shrine Game Players That Popped
- Draft Report Card Write-Up with
Grade and Draft Value Index Score
- College Stats and Write-Ups for
Players Drafted or Signed on Jay’s Annual List of Players
Who Will Have a Better NFL Career Than Many Selected Higher
Than Them in the Draft
- Team Draft Tendency Chart by
Workout Drill for the 2012 and 2013 Drafts
Jay Goldberg's in-depth team by team draft report cards